Is the third time a charm?

This is my third attempt at guessing the Opening Day roster. A lot has changed since my last attempt in February — Joe Girardi has hinted at a regular batting order, Phil Hughes has stepped up as the frontrunner for the #5 spot in the rotation, and Chan Ho Park was signed to further strengthen the bullpen. Without further ado, I make my third guess on the Opening Day roster:

LINEUP
SS Derek Jeter
DH Nick Johnson
1B Mark Teixeira
3B Alex Rodriguez
2B Robinson Cano
C Jorge Posada
CF Curtis Granderson
RF Nick Swisher
LF Brett Gardner

This lineup is all but set in stone, with the CF/LF situation still needing to be ironed out. The big deal here is having Cano protecting Tex and A-Rod. There is no question that he has the talent to succeed in the #5 spot — the concern is his poor performance with RISP last season (.207/.242/.332). Robbie will most certainly be looking to prove that those horrific numbers were a fluke, as well as make Yankees fans forget* Hideki Matsui (.303/.426/.521 w/RISP in 2009).

BENCH
C Gazoo Cervelli
IF Ramiro Pena
OF Randy Winn
OF Marcus Thames

ROTATION
SP CC Sabathia
SP A.J. Burnett
SP Andy Pettitte
SP Javier Vazquez
SP Phil Hughes

Before spring training it was Joba Chamberlain leading the pack in the #5 starter battle; now it is Hughes who has put himself in position to be the 5th starter. Alfredo Aceves, Chad Gaudin and Sergio Mitre are also in the mix; despite Aceves’ strong spring we all know that the battle ultimately comes down to Joba vs. Phil. Hughes will end up winning the battle, with Chanberlain likely headed for the bullpen yet again.

BULLPEN
CL Mariano Rivera
SU Joba Chamberlain
RP Damaso Marte
RP Alfredo Aceves
RP David Robertson
RP Boom Boom Boone Logan
LR Chan Ho Park

As I stated above, Joba is likely ticketed for the bullpen barring a complete collapse from Hughes. Other than that, the only other significant change is the addition of Park. Originally it seemed that he would be a short reliever for Girardi; however the plan is to use CHoP as a long reliever. This not only guarantees Logan’s spot as the 2nd lefty but also allows the Yankees to trade one of Gaudin and Mitre (if not both) and send the other to Scranton to be called up in case of an injury.

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Barring another drastic change, this will be the last guess at the roster before the Yankees break camp in April and head off to Boston. Have fun dissecting this one, everyone!

*I use this term lightly — no one could forget what Godzilla meant to the Yankees

Not even two weeks have passed and I’m already revising my Opening Day roster predictions.

It isn’t a major change to my initial prognostication, but the signing of Marcus Thames throws another wrench into the Yankees’ potential plans come April 4. Thames will fight for the final bench spot with Rule 5 pick Jamie Hoffmann — and I personally think his established RH power bat will win out in Spring Training, meaning Hoffmann would be headed back to Washington because he would not be on the 25-man roster.

Other than that there are no significant changes as far as anyone being replaced, but I would like to take the starting lineup and break it up into matchups (vs. RHP and vs. LHP):

LINEUP (vs. RHP)
SS Derek Jeter
DH Nick Johnson
1B Mark Teixeira
3B Alex Rodriguez
C Jorge Posada
LF Curtis Granderson
2B Robinson Cano
RF Nick Swisher
CF Brett Gardner

LINEUP (vs. LHP)
SS Derek Jeter
DH Nick Johnson
1B Mark Teixeira
3B Alex Rodriguez
C Jorge Posada
2B Robinson Cano
RF Nick Swisher
CF Curtis Granderson or LF Marcus Thames
LF/CF Randy Winn

BENCH
C Francisco Cervelli
IF Ramiro Pena
OF Randy Winn
OF Marcus Thames

ROTATION
SP CC Sabathia
SP A.J. Burnett
SP Andy Pettitte
SP Javier Vazquez
SP Joba Chamberlain

BULLPEN
CL Mariano Rivera
SU Phil Hughes
RP Damaso Marte
RP Alfredo Aceves
RP David Robertson
RP Boone Logan
LR Chad Gaudin

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There it is — the first revision of my roster predictions. I’m fairly sure there will be more to come as Spring Training progresses.

With yesterday’s signing of Randy Winn (physical pending), we may finally have the 40-man roster filled out. So with that in mind, it’s time to figure out how the Yankees’ 2010 roster will shape up. It’s cool to do this because it adds to the intrigue of spring training and opens the door for discussion about who should and shouldn’t start.

Without further ado, here’s my guess at what the Opening Day roster will look like:

LINEUP
SS Derek Jeter
DH Nick Johnson
1B Mark Teixeira
3B Alex Rodriguez
LF Curtis Granderson
C Jorge Posada
2B Robinson Cano
RF Nick Swisher
CF Brett Gardner

Many fans are upset that last season’s lineup was not kept intact; I think this lineup can be just as potent. Granderson gives the offense a different look in the middle of the order with his combination of power and speed and Johnson’s good eye and penchant for reaching base will complement this team perfectly behind Jeter. Having Gardner hitting 9th is very important: he takes the lineup to another level with his blazing speed and showed that he is more than capable of handling the stick.

BENCH
C Francisco Cervelli
IF Ramiro Pena
OF Randy Winn
OF Jamie Hoffmann

This, by far, is the biggest work in progress. Cervelli and Winn (once he officially signs) would appear to be locks here. Pena is a known plus-defender who earned himself a spot on the Opening Day roster last season after A-Rod’s hip surgery; he made sparkling play after sparkling play and more than held his own with the bat. He’s the leading candidate to be the backup infielder off the bench, but not as much of a lock as one would think.

The last bench spot is the one that is totally up in the air. Hoffmann was acquired from the Nationals in the Brian Bruney trade and projects as a quality right-handed bat. However, I get the feeling that Brian Cashman will look to add one more hitter — maybe Marcus Thames, perhaps. Juan Miranda cannot be forgotten; although he is a lefty and would be overkill at first base, he’s got a very solid bat and having him on the 25-man would give the Yankees a chance to see what he can do full-time. I’ll give it to Hoffmann to see what he can do in Yankee Stadium, and it adds to the youth movement.

ROTATION
SP CC Sabathia
SP A.J. Burnett
SP Andy Pettitte
SP Javier Vazquez
SP Joba Chamberlain

For the second straight year, there is little concern about the starting pitching. The three-headed monster that is CC Sabathia-A.J. Burnett-Andy Pettitte is intact, and the return of Javier Vazquez only solidifies the back end of the rotation. This leaves the #5 spot, likely to come down to phenoms Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes. A case can be made either way: Joba has a year of experience under his belt and will only improve from his up-and-down season. Phil needs to be stretched out as a starter and would greatly benefit from a season similar to Joba’s 2009.

It’s a true toss-up, and you can’t go wrong either way. I will go against the grain here and go with JOBA!!!!! as the #5 guy, with Hughes going back to the pen — and ABSOLUTELY NO SWITCHING of either pitcher.

BULLPEN
CL Mariano Rivera
SU Phil Hughes
RP Damaso Marte
RP Alfredo Aceves
RP David Robertson
RP Boone Logan
LR Chad Gaudin

Pretty easy to figure out here. Mariano, of course, will come out to “Enter Sandman” once more in the 9th inning, with Hughes as the primary set-up man. Marte proved himself in the playoffs, and will look to keep things up in the regular season as the main lefty in the ‘pen. Aceves will once again be Girardi’s “jack-of-all-trades” by pitching in just about any role asked of him, and Robertson — who I have prematurely anointed Mo’s successor — should build upon a very successful season as the Houdini of the bunch. We all know how much Joe loves having a second lefty, giving new guy Logan the egde over Jon Albaladejo and Edwar Ramirez, and Gaudin rounds out the best ‘pen in baseball as the long man.

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And there you have it, my early predictions for the 2010 Opening Day roster. Not everything is imminent, but it’s exciting to speculate early. Just be sure to keep a close eye on what happens between now and April 4th.